I’m not going to discount what the Texans have done so far this season. In fact, I really like what they’re doing. Houston knows that the team lives and dies through quarterback Deshaun Watson, so they got some new toys for him to play with, those being receiver Kenny Stills and lineman Laremy Tunsil. I simply think that in a conversation about each team’s Super Bowl chances, the Cowboys are much more likely to make it there than the Texans are.

While the road to the playoffs may be a bit tougher, thanks to a strong divisional opponent, the path through the postseason may fare better for Dallas than the path for the Texans. So far this season, the Cowboys have clicked offensively. And even with their defense underperforming, based on their expectations following last season, they still have the third-ranked defense in terms of points allowed.

Offensive coordinator and play caller Kellen Moore has the Cowboys firing on all cylinders, taking advantage of the many weapons in the Cowboys receiving group including Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup and Randell Cobb, while still keeping Ezekial Elliot very well fed. It also doesn’t hurt that Dak Prescott is playing at an MVP level while he waits for his big payday next offseason.

Leading into their bye, Dallas plays at the Saints, against the Packers, at the Jets and finally against the Eagles. At the time of this writing, the Saints game has yet to be played, and the rest of the games are not as worrisome. Realistically, the Cowboys can go 2-2 in this span and still enter the bye week with a spiffy 5-2, but it’s also not out of the question that Dallas enters the bye week still undefeated. This would give Dallas great cushion for the division race, and give the team plenty of breathing room as they go into the tough second half of the season, which include both of last year’s Super Bowl participants, the Rams and the Patriots.        

The biggest separation between these two Texas teams is the hierarchy of their respective conferences. In the NFC, the Cowboys have a strong case to be considered the top team, with the Saints and the Rams also being considerations. The Rams do not feel as strong as they did last season when it comes to their offense. The Saints, on the other hand, are currently without Drew Brees for at least another five weeks. The Texans will have to go through either the Chiefs, the Pats or even both if they want a shot at the title.

While I think scheduling favors the Texans due to their weak division, I believe that the tough second half for Dallas will have them well prepared for the playoffs since they will face off against all the top NFC teams and the Pats. 

Both teams will make the playoffs, but Dallas will have more success. Both teams will finish no worse than 10-6 and Dallas will either make the Super Bowl or NFC championship, while the Texans will make it no further than the AFC championship, unable to surpass the Patriots of Chiefs.